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Tropical Storm Dorian

  • As of the 11 AM ET advisory, Tropical Storm Dorian was located 40 miles southeast of St. Croix and moving to the northwest at 13 mph. Maximum sustained winds have increased to 60 mph.
  • Hurricane Hunters found Dorian more organized this morning and strengthening as approach to Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands.
  • Dorian has tracked further northeast than forecast, missing Hispaniola entirely and potentially missing even the smaller mountains of Puerto Rico. A well defined system is expected to emerge into the southwest Atlantic Thursday.
  • Conditions will be favorable for strengthening near the Bahamas Thursday night, Friday, and Saturday as the system tracks northwest towards the Florida Peninsula.
  • Dorian is forecast to be a MAJOR HURRICANE as it approaches Florida on Sunday.
  • The exact track is unknown after Day 4. The system could turn northeast towards the Carolinas, dissipate inland over Northeast Florida, or cross the Peninsula into the Gulf of Mexico.
  • Hurricane Hunters will continue to investigate the system regularly over the next few days.

Florida Outlook:

  • Tropical Storm Dorian does not pose a threat to Florida until Saturday morning, at the earliest.
  • The entire Florida Peninsula, Northeast Florida, and the Big Bend are included in the 5-day forecast cone.
  • There are no watches or warnings in effect, but tropical storm or hurricane watches could be issued on Thursday.
  • Dorian is forecast to be a Major Hurricane (Category 3) as it approaches Florida on Sunday (Northeast Florida, Central Florida, and/or South Florida).
  • After Sunday, Dorian could re-emerge over the eastern Gulf of Mexico should it track over Central or South Florida, or could move northward towards Georgia and the Carolinas.
  • The Rip Current Risk will be dangerously high for the holiday weekend at all Florida beaches.

 

  • Damaging winds, flash flooding, river flooding, storm surge, and isolated tornadoes are all possible this weekend in the Florida Peninsula.
  • Confidence has increased in the intensity forecast this weekend, but the track is uncertain.
  • All locations in Florida should continue to monitor Dorian for possible impacts over the Labor Day Weekend.
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